Wall Street drops as CPI data boosts December rate hike odds

Wall Street's three major indexes opened lower on Thursday, shying away from their record high closes, as an uptick in consumer prices inflation boosted the odds of another interest rate hike this year.

A Labour Department report showed consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected last month and the gain was the largest in seven months, lifting the year-on-year increase to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent in July.

Despite the uptick, both CPI and personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, remain stuck below the central bank's 2-percent target.

"I don't think they should raise rates in December, but they will, in order to counteract any kind of slowdown in the overall economy," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth.

After the data was released, the odds of a hike in December rose to top 50 percent for the first time since July, from 41.3 percent, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The CPI data is the last to be released before the Fed's Sept. 19-20 policy meeting, where it is expected to outline a program to start offloading its $4.2 trillion balance sheet.
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Indian Bank brings 2-tier interest rate for savings A/Cs

PSU lender Indian Bank on Friday said it will offer an interest rate of 4 per cent per annum on savings account with an incremental balance of over Rs 50 lakh and 3.50 per cent per annum for deposits up to Rs 50 lakh.

The lender in a statement said it "has introduced two tier interest rate structure for saving bank accounts and will offer 4 per cent interest per annum for incremental balance over Rs 50 lakh and 3.50 per cent per annum for balance up to Rs 50 lakh."

The new interest rate will be effective from August 16, 2017, the bank said in a BSE filing.

Recently, the country's largest lender State Bank of India had slashed interest rate on savings account deposits by 50 basis points to 3.5 per on balance of Rs 1 crore and below.

However, SBI continues to offer 4 per cent interest on savings account balance of Rs 1 crore and above.

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China's dollar bond maturities could haunt Fed policy meetings

In September 2015, the United States (US) Federal Reserve cited risks from China as a key reason for delaying its first interest rate hike in a decade. A wall of Chinese debt maturing in the next few years could jolt the country back into the US central bank's policy deliberations.

Two years ago, it was a collapse in Chinese stocks, a surprise yuan devaluation and shrinking foreign exchange reserves that roiled financial markets that delayed the Fed, but it did raise rates three months later and has tightened further since.

Now, some see risks emerging in China's dollar-denominated bonds that could give the Fed greater pause for thought as it raises rates, even as other central banks signal a shift from ultra-easy policy.

To be sure, Fed officials have not publicly flagged China's debt as a major risk in their policy discussions. However, debt analysts point to the possibility of another September 2015 moment in which the Fed takes its cues from concerns about China.

"Back then, I said that US monetary policy is not made in Washington, it's made in Beijing," said Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at bond giant PIMCO.

"China does have a major impact on monetary policies elsewhere ... This year has been smooth sailing for global central banks because there were no shockwaves from China but I expect that to change if we think beyond the next few months."
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Fed policymakers hint tensions on inflation, divided over debt holdings

Federal Reserve policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises, according to the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting on June 13-14 released on Wednesday.

The details of the meeting, at which the US central bank voted to raise interest rates, also showed that several officials wanted to announce a start to the process of reducing the Fed's large portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by the end of August but others wanted to wait until later in the year.

"Most participants viewed the recent softness in these price data as largely reflecting idiosyncratic factors...however, several participants expressed concern that progress...might have slowed and that the recent softness in inflation might persist," the Fed said in the minutes.

The committee questioned why financial conditions had not tightened despite recent rate rises and a few said equity prices were elevated.

US stock prices were up slightly at the close of trade while yields on US government debt dipped. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.

Last month's 8-1 vote to lift the benchmark interest rate another quarter per centage point, its second this year, signalled the Fed's confidence in a growing US economy and the eventual inflationary effects of low unemployment.

In a press conference at the time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen described a recent decline in inflation as temporary and the central bank kept its forecast of one more rate rise this year and three the next.

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Fed raises rates by 25 bps: What it means for inflation and labour market

The Federal Reserve has raised the interest rates at which banks borrow by 25 basis points to 1.12 per cent on Wednesday for the second time in three months, brushing off a recent run of mixed economic data. It forecasted one more hike this year.
The Fed has now raised rates four times as part of a normalisation of monetary policy that began in December 2015. The central bank had pushed rates to near zero in response to the financial crisis.

What reasons did the Federal Reserve cite?

1. The US central bank's rate-setting committee said the economy had continued to strengthen, job gains remained solid and indicated it viewed a recent softness in inflation as largely transitory.

2. The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

3. It expects to begin the normalisation of its balance sheet this year, gradually ramping up the pace. The plan, which would feature halting reinvestments of ever-larger amounts of maturing securities, did not specify the overall size of the reduction.

What is the initial cap?

The initial cap for the reduction of the Fed's Treasuries holdings would be set at $6 billion per month, increasing by $6 billion increments every three months over a 12-month period until it reached $30 billion per month.

For agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $4 billion per month initially, rising by $4 billion at quarterly intervals over a year until it reached $20 billion per month.
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