Three big problems with Trump's new Nafta plan

The Trump administration has outlined its plans to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It says the US will seek a “much better” agreement that reduces the trade deficit between the US and its partners, Canada and Mexico. In response, the two countries released brief statements welcoming the proposal. They say they consider a possible renegotiation as a step towards modernising NAFTA to address the new realities and challenges of the 21st century.

Despite these good intentions and purported goodwill, the US objectives for a revised NAFTA are unachievable. Three problems with the US negotiating position reveal the limited understanding of Donald Trump, the US trade representative, Robert Lighthizer (who will lead the negotiations), and their advisers about NAFTA and its side agreements.

1. A mistaken view of job losses

The US case for renegotiating the agreement is based on the claim that NAFTA is to blame for various (and unspecified) “problems for many American workers”. Allegedly, these problems have led to the explosion of US trade deficits since 1994, when the agreement entered into force, and the closure of “thousands of factories”. According to the US trade office, this situation left millions of American workers “stranded” and unable to use the skills in which they had been trained.

As candidate and president, Trump has repeatedly claimed that “disastrous trade deals”, including NAFTA, resulted in the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US. But US manufacturing jobs were not lost to Mexico, they were lost to China and technological change.
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