China's dollar bond maturities could haunt Fed policy meetings

In September 2015, the United States (US) Federal Reserve cited risks from China as a key reason for delaying its first interest rate hike in a decade. A wall of Chinese debt maturing in the next few years could jolt the country back into the US central bank's policy deliberations.

Two years ago, it was a collapse in Chinese stocks, a surprise yuan devaluation and shrinking foreign exchange reserves that roiled financial markets that delayed the Fed, but it did raise rates three months later and has tightened further since.

Now, some see risks emerging in China's dollar-denominated bonds that could give the Fed greater pause for thought as it raises rates, even as other central banks signal a shift from ultra-easy policy.

To be sure, Fed officials have not publicly flagged China's debt as a major risk in their policy discussions. However, debt analysts point to the possibility of another September 2015 moment in which the Fed takes its cues from concerns about China.

"Back then, I said that US monetary policy is not made in Washington, it's made in Beijing," said Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at bond giant PIMCO.

"China does have a major impact on monetary policies elsewhere ... This year has been smooth sailing for global central banks because there were no shockwaves from China but I expect that to change if we think beyond the next few months."
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