RBI monetary policy: Four charts show markets are preparing for a rate hike

The interest-rate cycle in India is turning. The central bank may be set to tighten policy next week to keep inflation in check and stem the declines in the rupee if the rate-market moves are any indication.

The Reserve Bank of India hasn’t tinkered with rates since August, and even cut inflation projections last month, raising expectations that borrowing costs would remain on hold. But a surprising hawkish tilt revealed in its April policy minutes and the recent spike in oil has boosted speculation the authority may lift rates at its June 6 meeting.

“Front-end bonds are fully pricing in a 25-basis point hike in June,” said Suyash Choudhary, head of fixed income at IDFC Asset Management Co. in Mumbai. “Even accounting for some higher supply absorption premium, one can say that a 75-basis point increase seems to be comfortably discounted over the next year.”

China's dollar bond maturities could haunt Fed policy meetings

In September 2015, the United States (US) Federal Reserve cited risks from China as a key reason for delaying its first interest rate hike in a decade. A wall of Chinese debt maturing in the next few years could jolt the country back into the US central bank's policy deliberations.

Two years ago, it was a collapse in Chinese stocks, a surprise yuan devaluation and shrinking foreign exchange reserves that roiled financial markets that delayed the Fed, but it did raise rates three months later and has tightened further since.

Now, some see risks emerging in China's dollar-denominated bonds that could give the Fed greater pause for thought as it raises rates, even as other central banks signal a shift from ultra-easy policy.

To be sure, Fed officials have not publicly flagged China's debt as a major risk in their policy discussions. However, debt analysts point to the possibility of another September 2015 moment in which the Fed takes its cues from concerns about China.

"Back then, I said that US monetary policy is not made in Washington, it's made in Beijing," said Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at bond giant PIMCO.

"China does have a major impact on monetary policies elsewhere ... This year has been smooth sailing for global central banks because there were no shockwaves from China but I expect that to change if we think beyond the next few months."
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Wall Street records fresh highs on Yellen's rate hike views at testimony

US stocks opened higher on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said interest rates hikes would be gradual and will not have to rise much further to reach neutral rate.

Yellen, in a prepared testimony to be delivered to Congress at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), said the economy is healthy enough to absorb further gradual rate increases and the slow wind down of the Federal Reserve's massive bond portfolio.

The testimony depicted an economy that, while growing slowly, continued to add jobs, benefited from steady household consumption and a recent jump in business investment.

Investors and some Fed officials, concerned with the recent dip in inflation, have been wanting to see a surer progress toward the central bank's goal of 2 percent inflation.

Yellen ascribed the inflation drop to "a few unusual reductions in certain categories of prices" and said it would eventually drop out of the calculation.

"I'm not very surprised by Yellen's comments. She's been pretty steadfast that we're raising rates... The market is liking the fact that she's seeing economic growth," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago.

"What the Fed's doing and she's doing is continuing the case for raising rates."

The U.S central bank will also issue its Beige Book at 2 p.m. ET, a compendium of anecdotes on the health of the economy. The Fed's next policy meeting is on July 25-26.

At 9:38 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 133.61 points, or 0.62 percent, at 21,542.68, the S&P 500 was up 16.18 points, or 0.66 percent, at 2,441.71.
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Fed policymakers hint tensions on inflation, divided over debt holdings

Federal Reserve policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises, according to the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting on June 13-14 released on Wednesday.

The details of the meeting, at which the US central bank voted to raise interest rates, also showed that several officials wanted to announce a start to the process of reducing the Fed's large portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by the end of August but others wanted to wait until later in the year.

"Most participants viewed the recent softness in these price data as largely reflecting idiosyncratic factors...however, several participants expressed concern that progress...might have slowed and that the recent softness in inflation might persist," the Fed said in the minutes.

The committee questioned why financial conditions had not tightened despite recent rate rises and a few said equity prices were elevated.

US stock prices were up slightly at the close of trade while yields on US government debt dipped. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.

Last month's 8-1 vote to lift the benchmark interest rate another quarter per centage point, its second this year, signalled the Fed's confidence in a growing US economy and the eventual inflationary effects of low unemployment.

In a press conference at the time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen described a recent decline in inflation as temporary and the central bank kept its forecast of one more rate rise this year and three the next.

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Fed raises rates by 25 bps: What it means for inflation and labour market

The Federal Reserve has raised the interest rates at which banks borrow by 25 basis points to 1.12 per cent on Wednesday for the second time in three months, brushing off a recent run of mixed economic data. It forecasted one more hike this year.
The Fed has now raised rates four times as part of a normalisation of monetary policy that began in December 2015. The central bank had pushed rates to near zero in response to the financial crisis.

What reasons did the Federal Reserve cite?

1. The US central bank's rate-setting committee said the economy had continued to strengthen, job gains remained solid and indicated it viewed a recent softness in inflation as largely transitory.

2. The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

3. It expects to begin the normalisation of its balance sheet this year, gradually ramping up the pace. The plan, which would feature halting reinvestments of ever-larger amounts of maturing securities, did not specify the overall size of the reduction.

What is the initial cap?

The initial cap for the reduction of the Fed's Treasuries holdings would be set at $6 billion per month, increasing by $6 billion increments every three months over a 12-month period until it reached $30 billion per month.

For agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $4 billion per month initially, rising by $4 billion at quarterly intervals over a year until it reached $20 billion per month.
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