Jerome Powell rose to top of Trump's list as safe, savvy choice for Fed

Jerome Powell was not on President Donald Trump's early radar as a possible successor to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, and was angling instead for a job as the U.S. central bank's vice chair for supervision.

But when he was passed over for that position last summer, it was one in a chain of events that set the stage for the 64-year-old Fed governor and former investment banker to take over as head of the world's most powerful central bank.

Trump on Thursday nominated Powell to replace Yellen when her term expires in early February, saying at the White House that the 64-year-old lawyer and former investment banker has the necessary "wisdom and leadership."

Other contenders for the job fell for different reasons, as Trump soured on top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, decided against renominating Yellen despite largely approving of her policies and came to view two others as posing risks to the economy, according to current and former Fed and government officials familiar with the decision.

In the end it was Powell, a Maryland native, avid cyclist, and guitar hobbyist, who checked all the boxes that mattered but carried none of the negatives.

If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Powell would become the first person without an advanced economics degree to hold the job since William Miller in the late 1970s.
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China's dollar bond maturities could haunt Fed policy meetings

In September 2015, the United States (US) Federal Reserve cited risks from China as a key reason for delaying its first interest rate hike in a decade. A wall of Chinese debt maturing in the next few years could jolt the country back into the US central bank's policy deliberations.

Two years ago, it was a collapse in Chinese stocks, a surprise yuan devaluation and shrinking foreign exchange reserves that roiled financial markets that delayed the Fed, but it did raise rates three months later and has tightened further since.

Now, some see risks emerging in China's dollar-denominated bonds that could give the Fed greater pause for thought as it raises rates, even as other central banks signal a shift from ultra-easy policy.

To be sure, Fed officials have not publicly flagged China's debt as a major risk in their policy discussions. However, debt analysts point to the possibility of another September 2015 moment in which the Fed takes its cues from concerns about China.

"Back then, I said that US monetary policy is not made in Washington, it's made in Beijing," said Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at bond giant PIMCO.

"China does have a major impact on monetary policies elsewhere ... This year has been smooth sailing for global central banks because there were no shockwaves from China but I expect that to change if we think beyond the next few months."
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Fed policymakers hint tensions on inflation, divided over debt holdings

Federal Reserve policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises, according to the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting on June 13-14 released on Wednesday.

The details of the meeting, at which the US central bank voted to raise interest rates, also showed that several officials wanted to announce a start to the process of reducing the Fed's large portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by the end of August but others wanted to wait until later in the year.

"Most participants viewed the recent softness in these price data as largely reflecting idiosyncratic factors...however, several participants expressed concern that progress...might have slowed and that the recent softness in inflation might persist," the Fed said in the minutes.

The committee questioned why financial conditions had not tightened despite recent rate rises and a few said equity prices were elevated.

US stock prices were up slightly at the close of trade while yields on US government debt dipped. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.

Last month's 8-1 vote to lift the benchmark interest rate another quarter per centage point, its second this year, signalled the Fed's confidence in a growing US economy and the eventual inflationary effects of low unemployment.

In a press conference at the time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen described a recent decline in inflation as temporary and the central bank kept its forecast of one more rate rise this year and three the next.

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Federal Reserve to normalise balance sheet in a careful way: William Dudley

New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Thursday the US central bank will normalise its balance sheet in a "very careful way", while leaving "sufficient" excess reserves in the financial system.

Dudley, in a speech in Mumbai, also told the audience not to expect any "dramatic change" in monetary policy in the United States.

The comments largely hewed to his previous stance on the subject and came in answers to questions from the audience after Dudley delivered a speech calling trade protectionism a "dead end".
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