Karnataka Assembly polls: How Telugu vote may swing the 'waveless' election

With less than 10 days left before the Assembly elections in Karnataka, politicians are busy slugging it out and political pundits are coming up with varied predictions on an everyday basis. Almost all opinion polls have predicted the possibility of Karnataka giving a fractured mandate and throwing up a hung assembly. Pollsters agree that Karnataka is an extremely tough state to predict because of the different voting patterns of different regions, the caste equations, local issues etc. In the end, a swing of 1 or 2% of the votes can make all the difference.

There are several constituencies where the electoral fate of the candidates will be sealed by a wafer-thin margin of a few thousand votes. Let’s look at the 2013 election results to understand this better. In the 2013 elections, the margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes in 49 seats. In 2008, the outcome of 64 seats was decided by a margin of less than 5,000 votes. This time, with no visible wave in favor of any party, such close contests are expected in at least 65 to 70 of the 224 assembly constituencies.