Will Trump admin's squeeze on security aid to Pakistan work?

The Trump Administration on the 4th of January announced the suspension of all security aid to Pakistan; approximately up to US$ 1.1 billion a year according to various estimates. What's new, you may ask? After all, we've seen this game before and we know that Pakistan had learned to game the US carrot-stick game like a pro. All indications now are that the US game has changed, the question though is how has it changed and what are the structural limitation that prevent the US from going the whole hog. 

President Trump's tweet on the 2nd of January, warning Pakistan of consequences, did not come out of the blue. Vice President Pence had previously delivered an extremely harsh and public warning to Pakistan during his visit to Afghanistan. Within 2 days, on the 4th of January, the State Department announced a suspension of all security related aid. Herein lies the key - non security related aid has not been suspended, neither has support for third party loans. Crucially this means continuing US support for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) loans to Pakistan. Both these bodies are controlled by the US and its allies and provide much more economic relief than direct US aid. As per the IMF website, total loans and drawing rights for Pakistan stood at US$ 6.8 billion dollars and the World Bank showed commitments over a 5 year period from 2013 to 2018 totalling US$ 8.5 billion. What this means is that while Pakistani military operations might be affected a bit, a US$ 1.1 billion security aid cut-off while inconvenient is not even remotely threatening Pakistan’s economic and therefore social stability. To avoid this cut-off, Pakistan is required to capture or kill 25 specific terrorists by 15th of January and initiate a crackdown on the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban. In fact it is perfectly foreseeable that Pakistan will not oblige the US on this score. In the past when aid cut-offs were threatened - as if on cue a high value Taliban or Al Qaeda target would be eliminated or detained by Pakistan security forces. 25 leaders on the other hand is far too many, and definitely not worth US$ 1.1 billion in the overall Pakistani scheme of things.
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