Trump's trade war and the $470 billion hit to the global economy

A full-blown trade war could cost the global economy $470 billion, according to Bloomberg Economics.
The U. S. decision to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum may just be the beginning, with President Donald Trump warning of more levies and other economies promising to respond. Cecilia Malmstrom, the European Union’s trade chief, vowed on Monday to “stand up to bullies.”

In a scenario where the U. S. implements a 10 percent levy on imports and the rest of the world retaliates, analysis by Bloomberg Economics published Monday says the global economy would be 0.5 percent smaller by 2020 than it would have been without tariffs. According to economists Jamie Murray and Tom Orlik, that’s an extreme scenario, “but it’s no longer an impossible one.”

They see the move rippling through the world economy in a number of ways, starting with faster inflation that dents U. S. consumer demand, which in turn hurts other economies’ exports. Retaliation would see the inflation shock replicated in other nations, with goods substitution hitting