The left diagnosed ills of globalisation but the right is eating our lunch

Free trade and the freedom of capital to move across borders have been the cutting edge of globalisation. They’ve also led to the succession of crises that have led to the widespread questioning of capitalism as a way of organising economic life — and of its paramount ideological expression, neoliberalism.

The protests against capitalism at the recent G20 meeting in Hamburg may seem superficially the same as those which marked similar meetings in the early 2000s. But there’s one big difference now: Global capitalism is in a period of long-term stagnation following the global financial crisis. The newer protests represent a far broader disenchantment with capitalism than the protests of the 2000s.

Yet capitalism’s resilience amidst crisis must not be underestimated. For trade activists, in particular, who’ve been on the forefront of the struggle against neoliberalism and globalisation over the last two decades, there are a number of key challenges posed by the conjuncture.

Neoliberalism’s surprising strength

First is the surprising strength of neoliberalism.

The credibility of neoliberalism, to which free trade ideology is central, has been deeply damaged by a succession of events over the last two decades, among which were the collapse of the third ministerial of the World Trade Organization in Seattle in 1999, the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, and the Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the effects of which continue to drag down the global economy.
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We're close to banning nuclear weapons - killer robots must be next

While much of the world’s attention was focused last week on the G20 meeting in Hamburg, and Donald Trump’s first face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin, a historic decision took place at the United Nations (UN) in New York.

On Friday, 122 countries voted in favour of the “Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons”.

Nuclear weapons were the only weapons of mass destruction without a treaty banning them, despite the fact that they are potentially the most potent of all weapons. Biological weapons were banned in 1975 and chemical weapons in 1992.

This new treaty sets the international norm that nuclear weapons are no longer morally acceptable. This is the first step along the road to their eventual elimination from our planet, although the issue of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions remains unresolved.

Earlier this year, thousands of scientists including 30 Nobel Prize winners signed an open letter calling for nuclear weapons to be banned. I was one of the signees, and am pleased to see an outcome linked to this call so swiftly and resolutely answered.

More broadly, the nuclear weapon treaty offers hope for formal negotiations about lethal autonomous weapons (otherwise known as killer robots) due to start in the UN in November. Nineteen countries have already called for a pre-emptive ban on such weapons, fearing they will be the next weapon of mass destruction that man will invent.

An arms race is underway to develop autonomous weapons, in every theatre of war. In the air, for instance, BAE Systems is prototyping their Taranis drone. On the sea, the US Navy has launched their first autonomnous ship, the Sea Hunter. And under the sea, Boeing has a working version of a 15 metre long Echo Voyager autonomous submarine.
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Trump's friendly meeting with Putin further blurs US-Russia relations

It emerged early this morning: a few seconds of grainy footage showing U.S. President Donald Trump shaking hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

Trump, the taller man, stoops to meet Putin on equal terms. He pats him repeatedly on the elbow, and then on the back.

Later, as they sat side-by-side in matching cream-colored chairs, Trump called it “an honor” to meet Putin. The Russian president noted that they had talked on the telephone several times, but that talking on the telephone is never enough. An interesting choice of words, given Putin’s disconcerting habit of leaking the private conversations of foreign leaders.

So what can we learn about their relationship and the future of U.S.-Russia relations from this single meeting?

Hidden planning

They talked for more than two hours, far longer than the scheduled half hour. According to a briefing given later in the afternoon by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, they discussed Syria, Ukraine, terrorism and cybersecurity, including “interference in the democratic processes” of the U.S. and other countries. And Tillerson announced that the U.S., Russia and Jordan have agreed to a ceasefire in Southwest Syria between the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and opposition forces.

This was a substantial agenda, made to seem more impressive by clever expectations setting and misdirection undertaken by administration officials in advance of the meeting.

The official announcement of the ceasefire was held back so that the meeting would have a “deliverable.” However, the Associated Press gave the game away by reporting the deal while Trump and Putin were still talking.
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The G20 summit shows a world divided in its attitudes toward globalisation

In particular, they are divided over their attitudes toward globalisation. It is globalisation that has significantly increased the degree of interconnection between the world’s economies. And it is this interconnection that drives the need for international discussion and cooperation – via events such as the G20.

But this last year has seen as a loud backlash against globalisation. There was the Brexit vote in the UK and the election of Donald Trump in the US on a protectionist ticket. This is ironic given that they are two of the world’s biggest economies (at least for the time being). Both have been major drivers of globalisation and have benefited enormously from it.

But now both countries are calling the future of globalisation into question. Two sides have emerged in the debate over whether or not globalisation is a good thing and whether or not nation states should be more protective and inward-looking.

On the one hand, some G20 countries emphasise the benefits of ongoing and increased levels of cooperation between countries and regional trading blocs. These countries, such as Germany and Canada, seek to tackle the issues caused by globalisation at the global scale. This is not a homogeneous group, but there is a broad consensus that the high degree of interconnection between the world’s economies is not easily unpicked, nor is it desirable to try to do so.
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G20: Protestors, police clash in Hamburg for third day; cars set ablaze

Fresh clashes erupted early on Sunday in the streets of Hamburg following the end of the G20 summit, with protesters setting fire to a number of vehicles, the police said.

The protesters gathered after the close of the summit in the Schanzen district, a stronghold for extreme left radicals which has been the site of multiple confrontations since Thursday.

Armed with glass bottles and targeting vehicles, many of which they set on fire, the protesters were pushed back by the police, using water cannon and tear gas, the police said on Twitter.

The police said more officers had been injured, and more people arrested.

According to the most recent figures given by the police yesterday, some 213 police officers have been injured since Thursday, and 143 people have been detained. No accurate number for protestors injured is available.

On Thursday, a planned peaceful march by around 12,000 people protesting against globalisation turned violent.

Friday's clashes occurred as leaders from the world's 20 biggest developed and emerging economies began the two-day meeting focusing on trade, terrorism, climate change and other key global issues.

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The G20's economic leadership deficit

Few have heard of the Baltic Dry Index. It measures the demand for bulk shipping carriers, used for international trade. It usually attracts little attention. But nine years ago this index had the undivided attention of the 20 most powerful leaders in the world.

It was when the global financial system was on a precipice. Stock markets were crashing. Credit markets were freezing. Rolling failures across financial institutions were shattering confidence. Unable to wait for monthly trade data, the Baltic Dry Index showed in real-time what many leaders feared: global trade and commerce were grinding to a halt.

Leaders faced the real prospect of another Great Depression. But they were determined not to make the mistakes of the past. They resisted a return to protectionism. They slashed interest rates and buttressed the International Monetary Fund and development banks. Over the next three years, they implemented US$5 trillion of co-ordinated fiscal stimulus, the largest in history.

That leadership is needed again today. The risks leaders face at the latest G20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany, might not be as serious as those the leaders who met in Washington faced back in 2008. But the risks are present, and leaders are disengaging with the G20’s ever-expanding agenda. They are more likely to use the G20 for cheap political point scoring than for advancing cooperation on critical global challenges.

Australia can play a role in helping the G20 to deliver this leadership.

Economic challenges

Protectionist measures are on the rise. Protectionist rhetoric is rising faster. The World Trade Organisation shows that the stock of trade-restrictive measures is growing, up 8.5% in the 12 months to May 2017 alone.
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Donald Trump, Angela Merkel to meet ahead of G20 talks

US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel plan to meet Thursday for what are expected to be tricky talks on the eve of a Group of 20 summit in Hamburg.

Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert said the meeting would come before the summit, "most probably in the early evening of Thursday".

The pair are also scheduled to talk by telephone today, Trump said in a tweet.

Transatlantic differences on climate change, trade, defence spending and refugees hang over the July 7-8 meeting of the world's major industrialised and emerging economies.

Last week Merkel met with key European leaders and vowed to make a stand for climate protection and open markets at the meeting with Trump, who has said he will take the US out of the Paris climate deal and pursue a protectionist "America First" policy.

Merkel said that "the differences are obvious and it would be dishonest to try to cover that up. That I won't do."

She also said the US exit from the 2015 Paris climate pact had made Europe "more determined than ever" to make the accord a success.

Today, presenting her party's election platform, she predicted "a whole series of thorny issues" at the G20.

"We know the positions of the US government and I do not expect them to disappear on a two-day trip to Hamburg," the chancellor said.

She warned against high expectations, noting that the summit's final communique has to be "approved unanimously".
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Donald Trump speaks with European leaders ahead of G20 summit this week

US President Donald Trump spoke with German and Italian leaders on Monday, a White House official said, ahead of a summit of the Group of 20 leading economies this week that could expose his sharp differences with world powers on trade and other issues.

Trump is preparing for the two-day G20 summit that starts in Hamburg on Friday, just over a month after a G7 summit in Sicily showed deep divisions between Trump and other Western leaders on climate change, trade and migration.

A fractious first NATO summit with Trump also left European allies wondering where the military alliance goes next.

Trump will hold separate meetings with various leaders in Hamburg, including host German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and a potentially difficult first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump announced on Twitter that he would be talking on the phone with leaders from Germany, Italy and France on Monday. The White House later said in a statement that the calls would be with Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, but did not mention French President Emmanuel Macron.

Trump and Macron spoke last week when the US president accepted an invitation to attend Bastille Day ceremonies in Paris on July 14.

Representatives for the White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Representatives for Macron's office could not immediately be reached for comment.

In remarks last week, Merkel raised the prospect of an open clash with Trump at the Hamburg summit, although some Trump administration officials have played down the discord.

Heather Conley, a State Department official during the Republican George W. Bush administration, said the United States' European allies are still shocked after the G7 and NATO summits with Trump cast doubt over Washington's relation with its allies.
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