Karnataka shows what Modi should most fear ahead of 2019 general elections

As a politician, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is distinguished by his relentlessness. Every vote, every constituency, every election matters. Modi has built his Bharatiya Janata Party into an electoral juggernaut that runs 21 of India’s 29 states; 70 per cent of India’s population is ruled by the BJP at both the state and the federal level.

In some of these states, such as the vast northern territory of Uttar Pradesh, the party swept elections on its own. In others, such as UP’s struggling neighbor Bihar, the BJP stole away one member of the ruling coalition in order to seize power for itself. In yet others, such as the coastal state of Goa, the opposition Congress Party in fact did better than the BJP in the elections only to discover that Modi’s lieutenants were far more skillful alliance-builders.

Last weekend, in the southern state of Karnataka -- home to India’s IT capital, Bangalore -- Modi discovered the limits of this strategy. Karnataka was the last major state ruled by Congress; after a bruising election campaign, the BJP ended up winning more seats in the state assembly, though not quite enough to form an outright majority.

Why Karnataka's new government has a job on its hands despite 8.5% growth

Karnataka is grappling with income inequality, an agrarian crisis and child malnutrition even though its economy grew at 8.5%–second-highest among 10 states and union territories in 2017–to a gross domestic product of Rs 9.5 lakh crore ($141 billion) in 2017-18, according to the latest economic survey.

The 2018-19 budget for the state is Rs 2.09 lakh crore ($31 billion), which is 12% more than the budget estimate of Rs 1.86 lakh crore for 2017-18. There has been an increase in the state’s revenue as well. Karnataka’s tax revenue for 2018-19, including goods and services tax (GT) compensation, is estimated to be Rs 1.03 lakh crore ($15 billion), an increase of 13% over the revised estimate for 2017-18.

The economic survey 2017-18 highlights Karnataka’s progress on the per capita income front too. With a per capita income of Rs 142,267 per annum, Karnataka’s citizens are India’s 10th richest, behind Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Kerala in 2015-16 according to national accounts.

This prosperity, however, has not led to equal distribution of wealth, robust agriculture or good access to public health systems.