10,000 finance jobs in UK affected in first Brexit wave, reveals survey

Around 10,000 finance jobs will be shifted out of Britain or created overseas in the next few years if the UK is denied access to Europe’s single market, according to a Reuters survey of firms employing the bulk of workers in international finance.

Frankfurt was by far the most popular destination for the new roles, the survey showed, with Paris a distant second.

The results from 123 firms came from the first comprehensive public survey to ask the biggest banks, insurers, asset managers, private equity firms and exchanges in Britain about the specific details of their plans so far in case of a so-called “hard” Brexit.

Canvassing was conducted by email and telephone interviews between Aug. 21 and Sept. 15, weeks after companies submitted detailed plans on their Brexit preparations to the Bank of England as required on July 14. The Bank declined to comment on the results of that survey.

Nearly half of the companies surveyed told Reuters they would have to move staff or restructure their businesses because of Brexit, which is due to take place in March 2019. Another third said it would have no impact, and the remainder said they were still deciding on their plans or declined to comment.
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UK election 2017: Why the hung parliament spells trouble for its economy

Theresa May’s snap election wager has backfired. The supposed “Brexit election” was intended to signal the public’s support for the prime minister’s approach to the UK’s departure from the European Union. Instead, it has left her incredibly weak, without even a majority in government and her future as leader uncertain. And the economic data reflects this.

Markets hate uncertainty. One measure that tracks this is the UK’s index of Economic Policy Uncertainty, which shows diminishing confidence around the country’s economic resilience. It is calculated by tracking daily articles relating to economic and political unrest in more than 650 newspapers in the UK. The higher the number, the more turbulent the economic outlook. The index surged from 286 on May 18, 2017 to a staggering peak of 521 on June 8 2017, the day of the general election.

This is significant because higher levels of uncertainty are associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in key areas of the economy like healthcare and infrastructure.

The UK’s rising uncertainty levels stretch back to its EU referendum on June 23, 2016. Since then, GDP growth increased by only 0.84% while inflation rose by 1.09%. Uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU and the Brexit negotiations has caused sharp movements in currency markets as a result of investors hedging their bets and speculating on trades. The day after the referendum, the euro to sterling exchange rate fell by a massive 6.2% overnight, while economic policy uncertainty hit a record value of 2,661. It fell a further 5.1% from June 2016 to May 2017 and 3.42% during the month of May 2017, alone.

The next graph shows the daily linkages between the euro to sterling exchange rate changes and economic policy uncertainty since May triggered Article 50 on March 29, 2017. A negative value implies that as the uncertainty index increases, the sterling to euro exchange rate tends to fall.
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