Trump's contrasting avatars: Peace in Korea, World War in West Asia

The president giveth and he taketh away.

Donald Trump is a stern and wrathful leader. He thinks nothing of raining down fire and fury upon the enemies of his “chosen people.” Indeed, he even flirts with ending the world if he doesn’t receive due respect and the requisite number of burnt offerings. But he can also reward his followers, and those who curry his favor, with positions of power and untold riches.

This month, Trump will appear as both of these avatars. By meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Trump promises to wave his hand and create peace where before there was nothing but strife and dissension. At the same time, Trump the Destroyer has pledged to take the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal and bring the world that much closer to apocalypse.

It’s a peculiarly hypocritical position to take, but strangely consistent for a two-faced leader.

The deal with Iran closed off all possibility of the country going nuclear for a decade or more. A rich country, Iran could create quite a nuclear arsenal if it so wanted. Iran has abided by the terms of the current Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and yet Trump has called the deal “horrible.” Indeed, the president believes that he can “fix” the JCPOA. That’s quite a delusion.

Here's how Donald Trump's game of musical chairs is taking a risky turn

The appointments of Pompeo and Bolton and the removal of McMaster and Tillerson suggest greater military belligerency and war risks but little substantial change.

The appointments of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton to replace less hawkish members of the White House team comes at the same time as threatened new trade tariffs on China’s alleged theft of American intellectual property, a problem recognised within China, on top of tariffs on steel and aluminium, and the strengthening of US-Taiwan relations.

Those moves appear to be classic Trumpian ‘transactionalism’ – a big rhetorical roar designed to open negotiations and force concessions, or the ‘art of the deal’. This was clearly seen with steel and aluminium tariffs, initially on all states yet from which the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Australia, and Argentina, are now exempt pending talks on trade and military spending. The difference, however, is that the latter are US allies while China has been declared a strategic competitor and revisionist power.

The aim seems to be to leverage US market access and military power against other states to shore up the US’ position, to reverse widely perceived ‘decline’ through America First ‘principled realism’ which US President Donald Trump claims will ‘make America great again’.

Donald Trump moves closer to presidency of one with Tillerson firing

In accepting the Republican nomination for president in 2016, Donald Trump described a nation plagued with problems and declared: “I alone can fix it.”
Now, as he fires top aides who were a moderating force and replaces them with loyalists who share his world view and won’t object to his most controversial impulses, his administration is fast becoming a presidency of one.

That accelerated with the ouster of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday and last week’s resignation of White House economic adviser Gary Cohn. The moves make clear that Trump has lost interest in hearing dissenting voices and are likely to fundamentally shift American diplomacy and economic strategy.

More departures may come soon
“Because he’s had all these different voices around him that have all these different ideas, it ended up being just a grand experiment,” said Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest. “I think the president realizes the experiment has failed and it’s time to push forward in the direction that he’s always wanted.”

Trump fires Tillerson: How 'Rexit' rumour became a reality; 10 developments

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday sacked Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, ending his short but tumultuous tenure as the nations chief diplomat. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will take over the top position.

Trump took to Twitter to share the development, saying: "Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State. He will do a fantastic job! Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service!

Gina Haspel -- Deputy Director at the Central Intelligence Agency -- will succeed Pompeo, becoming the first woman to run the spy agency, if confirmed. Both she and Pompeo would need confirmation by the Senate to take their respective positions. "Gina Haspel will become the new Director of the CIA, and the first woman so chosen. Congratulations to all!" Trump tweeted.

Oil jumps after Trump fires Rex Tillerson putting Iran nuke deal in focus

Oil rose after Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday, sparking a dollar fall and concern that a deal on Iran's nuclear programme could collapse.

The U. S. President is replacing Tillerson with loyalist CIA Director Mike Pompeo, an outspoken critic of Iran, who has called for a 2015 nuclear deal to be scrapped.

Trump has threatened to withdraw from the accord between Iran and six world powers, signed before he took office, unless Congress and European allies "fix" it with a follow-up pact.

"The market is having a wobble on the back of the potential impact on future supply from Iran and also for the ramifications for the Middle East as a whole," Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said.

Mike Pompeo: Five facts to know about Trump's new US Secretary of State

Following are the five facts about US Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo, who the President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced will replace Rex Tillerson as US secretary of state.

Mike Pompeo, 54, regularly briefs Donald Trump on intelligence matters, and is considered one of the most hawkish voices on North Korea in Trump’s inner circle.
Pompeo has downplayed the extent of Russia’s intervention in the 2016 US presidential election, saying Moscow has sought to influence American elections for decades. In February, he defended talks he had that month at CIA headquarters with Russian spy chiefs.

Like Trump, Mike Pompeo is an outspoken critic of Iran and has called for scrapping the 2015 deal curbing Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
In October, he said Iran was“mounting a ruthless drive to be the hegemonic power in the region.”

African countries should weigh Chinese loans carefully: Rex Tillerson

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Thursday that African countries should be careful not to forfeit their sovereignty when they accept loans from China, the continent's biggest trading partner.

Tillerson is using his first diplomatic trip to the continent to bolster security alliances on a continent increasingly turning to Beijing for aid and trade.

He may also seek to smooth relations after US President Trump reportedly dismissed some African nations as "shithole countries" in January. Trump later denied making the comment.

"We are not in any way attempting to keep Chinese dollars from Africa," Tillerson told a news conference in the Ethiopian capital. "It is important that African countries carefully consider the terms of those agreements and not forfeit their sovereignty."

Does BJP's polarising politics weaken India's strategic edge in Maldives?

The Narendra Modi government is currently experiencing a near-perfect storm of domestic and foreign policy setbacks. The ruling BJP has been drubbed in recent parliamentary bypolls in Rajasthan after an underwhelming result in Gujarat elections. The economy continues to struggle with the effects of demonetisation and GST, global fuel prices are high, the stock market is wobbly, the Union budget disappointed even BJP’s supporters and remarks by Modi that making pakodas (fritters) constituted gainful employment for citizens has become a source of mirth and anger.

The foreign affairs scene is not comforting either. China is reinforcing its military presence near Doklam, belying claims that India had “won” the standoff last year, Beijing is negotiating a military base in Afghanistan, and a Chinese company has formally signed the lease for the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka while experts say that Delhi has lost “all its leverage” in Nepal.

Third-highest ranking US diplomat quits in latest departure under Trump

The US State Department’s third-ranking official, Tom Shannon, said on Thursday he was stepping down, the latest senior career diplomat to exit since President Donald Trump took office a year ago.
Shannon, who serves as under secretary of state for political affairs, is the most senior career diplomat at the State Department and has been a fixture among the nation’s diplomatic ranks during more than 34 years of service spanning six presidents and 10 secretaries of state.

In a letter to department staff, Shannon, 60, said he was resigning for personal reasons.
“My decision is personal, and driven by a desire to attend to my family, take stock of my life, and set a new direction for my remaining years,” Shannon wrote in a note to staff after informing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday of his decision to retire.

Let's talk without preconditions if you are excited about it: US to N Korea

The United States is ready to begin talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament without prior conditions, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Tuesday.

"We're ready to have the first meeting without preconditions," Tillerson told a meeting on the crisis at the Atlantic Council policy forum in Washington.

"Let's just meet and let's talk about the weather if you want and talk about whether it's going to be a square table or a round table if that's what you're excited about."

This appeared to represent a softening in the US position, seeing as officials had previously demanded that Kim Jong-Un's regime demonstrate a willingness to consider giving up their arsenal.

But elsewhere in his remarks, Tillerson insisted the US- led pressure campaign of economic and diplomatic sanctions would continue until "the first bomb drops."

He stressed that Washington "simply cannot accept a nuclear armed North Korea" and that President Donald Trump "intends to ensure that they do not have deliverable nuclear weapons to (reach) the shores of the United States.
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No one can contain us, says Chinese envoy on US selling arms to India

The Chinese envoy to the US today said that no one could "contain" China now, expressing his displeasure over the formation of an "exclusive club" in the Indo-Pacific region.

Chinese Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai was responding to questions on the recent India-centric policy speech by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and the decision of the Trump administration to sell to India high-tech military equipment, including state-of-the-art armed drones, and the Japanese proposal of a strategic quadrilateral dialogue involving India and Australia.

"I don't think that the sales of advanced arms would really serve that purpose," Cui said.

Political analysts in the west have described the sale of arms to India as a US move to contain China.

"By the way I don't think anybody would be able to contain China," the Chinese Ambassador asserted in his rare press conference at the Embassy of China here.

The top diplomat was addressing media ahead of US President Donald Trump's visit to China early next month.

Trump is scheduled to embark on a 10-day visit to China. He would also visit Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines.

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Rohingya crisis: Thousands rally in defence of Myanmar army

Military songs rang out across downtown Yangon on Sunday as tens of thousands rallied in defence of Myanmar's army, an institution accused by the global community of driving Rohingya Muslims from the country.

More than 600,000 Rohingya have fled western Rakhine state to Bangladesh since late August when raids by militants from the minority group were met with ruthless army "clearance operations".

The United Nations has led global condemnation, calling the crackdown a "textbook" example of ethnic cleansing.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson phoned army chief Min Aung Hlaing earlier this week to express his concerns at alleged atrocities in Rakhine state and urge a swift and safe return for the Rohingya.

But inside Myanmar support for the army has surged — an unlikely turnaround for a once feared and hated institution that ruled for 50 years and whose lawmakers lost heavily in 2015 polls.

Those elections sent Aung San Suu Kyi's pro-democracy party into power, but the Rohingya crisis has put her government on the backfoot.

Demonstrators carried banners lauding Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and rebuking the international community for "pressuring the Tatmadaw" — as Myanmar's army is known.

"The Tatmadaw is essential for the country, it protects our ethnic groups, races and religion," Nan Aye Aye Kyi, 54, told AFP as the rally snaked through Yangon to the iconic Sule Pagoda.
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Eradicate terrorists: Rex Tillerson's strong message to Pakistan

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday told Pakistan that it must increase its efforts to eradicate militants and terrorists operating within the country.

Tillerson, who was in Islamabad for a few hours on his inaugural trip to Pakistan as Secretary of State, met with Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, and discussed the continued bilateral cooperation and partnership, expanding economic ties between the United States and Pakistan, and Pakistan's critical role in the region, said a US Embassy press release.

The top US official reiterated President Donald Trump's message that Pakistan must increase its efforts to eradicate militants and terrorists operating within the country.

To address those concerns, the Secretary outlined the United States' new South Asia Strategy and the vital role that Pakistan can play in working with the United States and others to facilitate a peace process in Afghanistan that can bring stability and security to the region. The Secretary noted that Pakistan and the United States share common interests in establishing a stable, peaceful Afghanistan, defeating ISIS in South Asia, and eliminating terrorist groups that threaten both Pakistan and the United States.
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As Rex Tillerson heads to Pak, Islamabad wary of deepening India-US ties

Nuclear-armed Pakistan, a staunch US  Cold War ally and key player in the US -backed invasion of Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, has watched warily as Washington has in recent years pivoted towards its arch-foe.

Islamabad views its much-bigger neighbour as an existential threat and the two nations have fought three wars since their violent separation at the end of colonial rule in 1947.

Tillerson, due to meet Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Pakistan’s powerful military chiefs in a one-day visit, is expected to urge Pakistan to do more to root out Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network militants operating on its soil.

But he is also expected to hear Pakistani officials warn him that drawing nuclear-armed India deeper into Afghanistan would destabilise the region and do little to end the 16-year war that is now America’s longest military conflict.

“Bringing India into the mix is like adding kerosene to fire,” said Miftah Ismail, a state minister and close ally of Prime Minister Abbasi.

“It’s a complete red line. India has no political role to play in Afghanistan as far as we are concerned.”
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Afghan President and US Secretary of State to land in New Delhi today

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani is scheduled to visit India on Tuesday morning, while US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is also slated to land here on a three-day visit on Tuesday evening.

According to the ministry of external affairs, Ghani would land in Delhi at 8.10am and leave at 5.20pm, before Tillerson is to arrive. Ghani will have delegation-level talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the afternoon.

Ghani and Tillerson are unlikely to meet in Delhi. The two met in Kabul on Monday. Tillerson is on a week’s visit to Asia. According to a statement by the US Embassy in Kabul, Tillerson said in his meeting with Ghani that the “new US strategy for South Asia makes clear the US’ commitment to working with the government of Afghanistan and with partners across the region and to deny safe havens to terrorists who threaten that goal.”

The Afghan president’s day-long working visit to Delhi, therefore, comes on the heels of a series of developments. Tillerson is also slated to visit Islamabad.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Zamir Kabulov, was in Delhi and held discussions with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar. The discussions related to regional security. Kabulov, as Putin's special representative, is responsible for Moscow’s Afghanistan policy.
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All the lessons Donald Trump has taught us

Recent surveys suggest that people who do not like Donald Trump as United States president find nothing at all to like.

But, like him or not, Trump has shown us a great deal in his short time on the political stage. For that, we should be grateful. After all, expressing gratitude is the polite and civilized thing to do.

So, how much do we owe Trump? As a U.S.-born linguist, an expert in Caucasian languages and politics, and someone who advised the Bill Clinton White House on Russia at various points in my career, please let me count the ways.

Lesson No. 1 : Disdain for tradition

Trump has shown us that the precedents and traditions surrounding the office of the presidency, and the competition to attain that office, are not enough to bring about respect and compliance by the occupant of the White House. Trump paradoxically seems to despise the traditions of the very office he sought.

Specifically, he has taught us that income tax returns of candidates and nominees must be revealed by law, not by custom. Trump has good reason to flout this tradition, the least of which is being under audit.
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President Trump to decertify Iran nuclear deal in major shift in US policy

US President Donald Trump will strike a blow against the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement in defiance of international support for it on Friday, choosing not to certify that Tehran is complying with the deal in a major reversal of US policy.

Trump will make the announcement in a speech at 12:45 pm EDT (1645 GMT) that will detail a more confrontational approach to Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its financial and military support for extremist groups in the Middle East, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters.

Trump will also give the US Treasury Department broad authority to impose economic sanctions against people and entities in the Iranian military, the Iran Revolutionary Guard, in response to what Washington calls its efforts to destabilize and undermine its opponents in the Middle East.

Trump's decision to decertify the nuclear deal will not withdraw the United States from the agreement, which was negotiated by the United States and other world powers during the administration of former President Barack Obama.

Trump will attempt to persuade the US Congress to approve some separate measures to toughen US policy toward Iran.
Tillerson acknowledged the strategy may not work.
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Donald Trump says 'only one thing will work' with North Korea

US President Donald Trump has said "only one thing will work" with North Korea after past talks with Pyongyang had yielded no results.

"Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid," Trump tweeted on Saturday, Xinhua news agency reported.

"...Hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, making fools of US negotiators," Trump wrote. "Sorry, but only one thing will work!"

Trump did not make clear to what he was referring to in his tweets.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders later confirmed to media that all options are still on the table and she had nothing further to add at this time.

Tensions ran high on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test on September 3.

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Tillerson, Mattis to visit Pakistan to drill home Trump's message on terror

President Donald Trump will dispatch his top diplomatic and military advisers to Pakistan in the coming weeks, turning up the heat on a nuclear-armed ally accused of harbouring terror groups.

Weeks after Trump angrily accused Islamabad of providing safe haven to "agents of chaos," Secretary of State Rex Tillerson plans to depart for Pakistan late this month.

He will be followed by Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis, according to US and Pakistani sources.

The one-two punch is designed to drill home Trump's message that Pakistani state support for jihadist groups has to end, according to officials briefed on the visits.

Washington has long been frustrated by Pakistan's willingness to offer cross-border safe havens to Taliban factions and armed Islamist groups fighting US troops and their Afghan allies.

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Trump to address world leaders at UN, share spotlight with Nikki Haley

When President Donald Trump takes the world stage at the United Nations for the first time this week, he will share the spotlight with his envoy Nikki Haley, who has emerged as the surprising public face of US foreign policy.

Haley, the 45-year-old former South Carolina governor, has proven to be a high-profile member of Trump’s administration, at times overshadowing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the former chief executive of Exxon Mobil Corp, despite her lack of previous foreign policy experience, diplomats say.

“For the US, Nikki Haley is remarkable. It’s hard to find in the Trump administration. It’s someone who is very approachable and politically very assertive,” said a senior European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
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