Higher tariffs could harm market sentiment, disrupt supply chains: IMF

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that rising US-China trade restrictions threaten to damage a steady global growth picture, but there was still time for the world's two largest economies to step back from the brink.

The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, kept its global growth forecasts for both 2018 and 2019 unchanged at 3.9 per cent after upgrades in January that were partly based on expectations of stronger US spending spurred by tax cuts.

But IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said those effects will fade quickly, causing growth to slow in subsequent years.

"The prospect of trade restrictions and counter-restrictions threatens to undermine confidence and derail growth prematurely," Obstfeld told a news conference ahead of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings this week, where trade is expected to dominate discussions.

Asked if a trade war was under way, Obstfeld said the United States and China had fired "some warning shots" on tariff plans but had not activated them

Will Trump meet Kim? Uncertainty prevails as N Korea yet to accept invite

Uncertainty lingers over the first-ever meeting between the United States' President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as Washington is yet to hear directly from Pyongyang on the invitation extended by Kim via South Korean intermediaries.

"We've not heard anything directly back from North Korea, although we expect to hear something directly from them," the New York Daily News reported, citing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as telling reporters on Monday in Nigeria's Abuja, when asked about plans for the meeting, likely to take place in May.

Tillerson also stated that no venue for the meeting had been agreed upon, adding, "I think it's going to be very important that those conversations are held quietly" between the two nations.

According to the report, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Friday said the meeting wouldn't take place "until we see concrete actions that match the words and the rhetoric of North Korea."

US govt records $215 bn budget deficit in Feb as revenues fall, outlays up

The US government had a $215 billion budget shortfall in February as revenues into the government's coffers fell and outlays increased, the Treasury Department said on Monday.

That compared with a budget deficit of $192 billion in the same month last year, according to Treasury's monthly budget statement.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the Treasury recording a $216 billion deficit last month.

The deficit for February was not affected by timing-related transactions.

The deficit for the fiscal year, which began in October, was $391 billion, compared to a deficit of $351 billion in the same period of fiscal 2017.

When accounting for calendar adjustments, the deficit for the fiscal year to date was $448 billion, compared to an adjusted total of $390 billion for the prior fiscal year.

African countries should weigh Chinese loans carefully: Rex Tillerson

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Thursday that African countries should be careful not to forfeit their sovereignty when they accept loans from China, the continent's biggest trading partner.

Tillerson is using his first diplomatic trip to the continent to bolster security alliances on a continent increasingly turning to Beijing for aid and trade.

He may also seek to smooth relations after US President Trump reportedly dismissed some African nations as "shithole countries" in January. Trump later denied making the comment.

"We are not in any way attempting to keep Chinese dollars from Africa," Tillerson told a news conference in the Ethiopian capital. "It is important that African countries carefully consider the terms of those agreements and not forfeit their sovereignty."

US delays its proposal to end H-1B spouses' work authorisation until June

The Trump administration has delayed its decision on termination of work authorisation for spouses of the H-1B visa holders, in a big relief to a significantly large number of Indian workers and their families.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in a court submission this week said that it would not take a decision on terminating the work authorisation of H4 visa users, spouses of H-1B visa holders, till June as it needs time to review the economic impact of such a decision.

Since 2015, the spouses of H-1B, or high-skilled, visa holders waiting for green cards have been eligible to work in the US on H-4 dependent visas, under a rule introduced by the previous Obama administration. The DHS was previously scheduled to take a call on it by February 28.

Global stocks, dollar tumble as Trump sparks global trade war fears

The spectre of a global trade war sent world stocks tumbling towards a 2.5 percent weekly loss on Friday, and left bruised investors reaching for the traditional antidotes - government bonds, gold and the Japanese yen.

The falls came after U. S. President Donald Trump said the United States would impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminium, sparking concerns of retaliatory moves from major trade partners China, Europe and neighbouring Canada.

Europe's STOXX 600 index fell over 1.5 percent led by a near 5 percent slump from world's biggest steelmaker ArcelorMittal SA and 2.5 - 6 percent drops from the region's carmakers worried that they might be next.

China is coercing neighbours to reorder Indo-Pacific region: Pentagon

China is coercing its neighbours to reorder the Indo-Pacific region, the Pentagon told Congress in its annual budget proposals for the fiscal 2019, beginning October 1 this year.
Trump administration on Monday released their proposal for the fiscal year 2019 budget.

Fiscal years are different from calendar years. The budgetary proposal covers October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019.
"China is leveraging military modernisation, influence operations and predatory economics to coerce neighbouring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their advantage," the Pentagon said in its annual defence budget for the fiscal 2019.

Trump administration plans to end refugee programme for children

The Trump administration plans to stop accepting refugee applications from children with U.S.-based parents from three violence-riddled Central American countries — El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala — according to the summary of a presentation the State Department made recently to refugee organizations.

The decision to end the Central American Minors program, which began in 2014 and is the only refugee program aimed at helping people from that region, could put hundreds of families split between two countries in a delicate situation.

The children will no longer be able to come legally to the U.S. Of course, they can still attempt to cross without authorization and then either request asylum or try to navigate the border region without being detained or injured — just the kind of dangerous illegal immigration that the CAM program was meant to discourage. (And if the children do cross the border, as ProPublica recently reported, they could expose their parents to an investigation for child smuggling.)

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Workers' lives be damned as Trump seeks to milk Papua New Guinea gold mines

The Grasberg Mine is a massive scar 14,000 feet atop West Papua’s part of New Guinea’s Central Cordillera. It’s is the world’s biggest, most profitable gold mine and the world’s third biggest copper mine, with estimated reserves of $100 billion.

Some 20,000 people work there, making it the largest employer on the divided island and the largest source of revenue in all of Indonesia. Many of those engaged in the dangerous work of mining come from the 40,000-year-old indigenous community of New Guinea, a people the Indonesian authorities are slowly pushing into non-existence.

In 1962, the Indonesians, with the connivance of the US, grabbed the western half of New Guinea. Since then, the destruction of the environment and the local communities has advanced as Indonesians displace the indigenous population and scramble over valuable resources. Although Indonesia has barred a full accounting, there have been hundreds of thousands of deaths—many in the most brutal and deliberate fashion.

Responsibility for the destruction and slow genocide now rests securely with the Indonesian government. But the US continues to defer to its ally in the same way it does to, say, Saudi Arabia: in short, weak complaints and no action.

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Harvard biased against Indians, Asians? US to probe complaint

US President Donald Trump's administration is preparing to probe a complaint by four Indian-American organisations and other Asian groups that Harvard University discriminates against students from the communities in its admission process.

Justice Department Spokeswoman Sarah Isgur Flores said on Wednesday the department wants to investigate the "administrative complaint filed by a coalition of 64 Asian-American associations in May 2015 that the prior Administration left unresolved".

Flores said: "The complaint alleges racial discrimination against Asian-Americans in a university's admission policy and practices."

The Global Organisation of Persons of Indian Origin (Gopio), National Federation of Indian-American Associations, American Society of Engineers of Indian Origin, and BITS Sindri Alumni Association of North India were among the 64 Asian groups that jointly filed the federal complaint.

The complaint said: "Many Asian-American students who have almost perfect SAT (Scholastic Aptitude Test) scores, top one per cent GPAs (Grade Point Average), plus significant awards or leadership positions in various extracurricular activities have been rejected by Harvard University and other Ivy League Colleges while similarly situated applicants of other races have been admitted."
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Revisiting the legacy of Jerry Falwell Sr in Trump's America

Recently, President Donald Trump appointed evangelical Christian leader Jerry Falwell Jr to head the White House education reform task force. Not much is known about the task force or what its work will be. And, tapping Falwell Jr as its leader may seem odd to some observers given that he is president of Liberty University, a Christian university founded by his father, Jerry Falwell Sr, and not a top research university.

Falwell Jr has recently been active in the political realm, particularly in his outspoken support of Donald Trump.

From my perspective as someone who has been studying Protestant fundamentalists and evangelicals for more than 20 years, Falwell Jr, to date, remains a relatively minor political and religious figure. His appointment could be better explained by his family legacy, particularly that of his late father, Jerry Falwell Sr – an enormously influential figure in American politics still today.

From televangelist to political activist

Falwell Sr was a pastor of Thomas Road Baptist Church, a fundamentalist Christian megachurch in Lynchburg, Virginia. Along with several other evangelical televangelists in the 1970s, he enjoyed a large national following who tuned in to his weekly televised church service.
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The terrifying uncertainty of Supreme Court's 'Muslim Ban' ruling

I’m a US citizen. I’m also Muslim. And the Supreme Court decision on the Trump administration’s Muslim travel ban scares me.

In a June 26 ruling, the court decided to leave in place parts of the Muslim ban while the merits of the case are debated, effectively barring individuals from six Muslim-majority countries without a “bona fide” relationship in the US — say, with family members, an employer, or an educational institution — into the country. This decision may also prevent entry for all refugees for 120 days.

The ruling has been hailed as a victory for the Trump administration — not just on the legal end, but also in the degree to which it instills fear in Muslims. The fear is real, and not just for those who may be directly impacted, but for the larger community, too. After all, what the travel ban is ultimately meant to do is to hold all Muslims collectively responsible for the actions of a (miniscule) few.

As a Muslim American of Egyptian descent, will I be legally impacted by the decision? In theory, no. But will I think twice about leaving the country, knowing that I could return to the possibility of being harassed, interrogated, and/or denied entry back into the US? Absolutely. Because after almost 16 years of the war on terror, you come to learn — or become conditioned to fear — that one day you could be next.

The distinction between citizen and non-citizen becomes ever more perilous when you “look Muslim,” have a Muslim sounding name, or work on issues relating to Muslims. This doesn’t mean I’ll experience the same consequences as Muslim non-citizens, but neither does my citizenship reassure me that my fellow Muslim Americans and I will be protected, especially in light of this administration’s history over the last few months alone.
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What next for US-Australian ties after Malcolm Turnbull mocks Donald Trump?

As has been widely reported, Australia's Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull recently lampooned Donald Trump in a stand-up performance at Canberra's Midwinter Ball. The ball is the Aussie equivalent of the White House correspondents dinner that Trump boycotted this year, except that proceedings are supposed to be confidential.

The pair had a bumpy start to their relationship. A phone call in late January between the two was far from harmonious with Trump extremely critical of a refugee resettlement deal negotiated with the Obama administration. He allegedly told the PM that it was “the worst call by far” to a world leader and tweeted:

Do you believe it? The Obama Administration agreed to take thousands of illegal immigrants from Australia. Why? I will study this dumb deal!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 2, 2017

His administration eventually agreed to implement the agreement. Asylum seekers are currently being assessed with extreme vetting.

Audio of the send-up was leaked by veteran Australian political journalist Laurie Oakes. He argued that he did not feel obliged to follow the “off-the-record tradition” as he did not attend the event and thinks the ban is inappropriate. The Guardian's Katharine Murphy agrees:

If the press gallery continues to agree that midwinter ball speeches off the record, we have jumped the bloody shark https://t.co/KFCbpbFf09

— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) June 15, 2017

Turnbull's routine involves some impersonation of the president complete with gestures. Politicususa summarised the script:

“The Donald and I … we are winning and winning in the polls. We are winning so much We are winning like we have never done before. We are winning in the polls. We are. Not the fake polls. Not the fake polls. They’re the ones we are not winning in. We are winning in the real polls. You know the online polls. They are so easy to win. I know that, do you know that? I kind of know that. They are so easy to win. I have this Russian guy..”
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Cuba to President Trump: US in no 'condition to lecture us' on human rights

In response to President Donald Trump's announcement that he is reversing the Obama administration's steps to thaw ties with Cuba, the Castro government has hit back strongly saying the Unites States is in no "condition to lecture us."

The statement by Havana asserted by Trump's Miami address to announce the rollback was "full of hostile rhetoric", adding that the announced policies will "revert" the progress achieved between the two countries in the past two years, reports CNN.

Under the President's executive order, the Trump administration will begin strictly enforcing the exemptions that allow travel between the US and Cuba and prohibit commerce with Cuban businesses owned by the military and intelligence services.

Trump also directed Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to convene a task force on expanding Internet access on the island and reiterated the United States' opposition to efforts in the United Nations to lift the Cuban embargo until more is done to honor human rights.

During his speech, Trump had also slammed Cuba for human rights abuses, saying, "The Castro regime has shipped arms to North Korea and fueled chaos in Venezuela. While imprisoning innocents, it has harbored cop killers, hijackers and terrorists. It has supported human trafficking, forced labor and exploitation all around the globe."

Giving a strong rebuttal, the Cuban government stated that Trump's executive order betrays a double standard on human rights.

"We have deep concerns by the respect and the guaranties of the human rights in that country, where there is a large number of cases of murder, brutality and police abuse, particularly against the African Americans; the right to live is violated as a result of deaths by firearms," the statement read.
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Why US firms will ignore Trump's withdrawal from Paris climate agreement

Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord has received widespread condemnation from political leaders, scientists, activists and climate experts. Perhaps surprisingly, a number of big businesses have also voiced their disagreement with the US president’s move.

Among others, well-known companies such as Apple, General Electric, Google, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo, Walmart and Walt Disney all condemned the announcement and vowed to continue with their own efforts to protect the environment regardless. Coupled with statements from states and cities, as well as other organisations, this shows that while the president may be appealing to a very specific slice of his electorate, many Americans are decidedly critical. Even large oil companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron have argued against withdrawal.

It’s clear why. Climate change cannot be ignored and these companies are better off moving with the times – and profiting from it in the process.

Competitive advantage
Trump had campaigned against the Paris Agreement. He argued it placed a heavy burden on America’s economy by putting people (notably coal miners) out of jobs to the benefit of other nations.

Of course, all policy decisions have an impact on business in some way. But the US president’s assertion that taking steps to limit climate change is bad for business is evidently wrong given the very significant growth in renewable energy investment and jobs in recent years. For example, in the US, there are already more than twice as many more people employed in the solar energy sector compared to coal.

Indeed, many of the US’ biggest companies are its most innovative. And it has been their engagement with climate change that has led to significant (green) product innovations and process improvements that have saved businesses countless dollars in energy costs. Take Campbell Soup for example. Until 2020 its aim is to reduce its environmental footprint including carbon emissions by 50%. The company’s varied initiatives span across reducing waste, water and packaging, but it also made improvements in the transporting and handling of raw materials and ingredients.
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