President Donald Trump’s zeal for tariffs has yet to derail the global economic outlook. While Trump has sown confusion and frustration among fellow political leaders, economists at most Wall Street banks are barely changing their forecasts for solid global growth this year as they estimate only modest fallout from a skirmish over commerce. Take Trump’s 25 percent steel tariffs.
After stripping out food and energy, consumer prices are poised to rise by three basis points in response, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research note Monday. The worry remains that Trump may just be getting started. If the president delivers on all his tariff threats, $475 billion in goods would be affected, and core inflation would speed up by about 15 basis points, according to Goldman. That’s still a small increase, but one that might get the attention of the Federal Reserve, which could spur more aggressive policy tightening.
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